Main Picks vs Outsider Picks: Why We Back Winners and Profit

At PunterPro, every race card you read is powered by our prediction engine and years of result tracking. If you’ve been following our tips, you’ll notice we always publish two core angles: a Main Pick and a Outsider Pick. They’re not the same thing, and they’re not meant to be.

This article explains the difference, why we include both, and why outsider selections have become a major long-term profit driver in our algorithm.

What Is a Main Pick?

Your Main Pick is our model’s most likely winner. Simple as that.

When our system analyses a race, it weighs form, conditions, pace shape, trainer patterns, market movement, historical track bias, and a stack of other signals. The horse that comes out on top is the one we believe has the highest probability of winning the race.

Main Picks are designed for punters who want:

• Consistency across a long series of bets
• Higher strike rate (more wins)
• Lower volatility compared to longshots

Over time, Main Picks are the backbone of a steady betting approach — they’re about predicting winners, not chasing miracles.

So Why Have an Outsider Pick?

Because probability isn’t the same as profit.

Our Outsider Pick is the horse the model believes is most likely to outperform its odds. It might not be the most probable winner — but it’s often the best value in the market.

Think of it like this:

• Main Pick = “most likely winner”
• Outsider Pick = “best risk/reward value”

Outsiders are chosen when the model detects a pricing gap — where the market is underestimating a horse’s real chance based on our data.

Main Picks Win More… Outsiders Make More

This is the key point, and it’s why we publish both.

Main Picks typically deliver the higher strike rate. That’s expected. But in long-term tracking across thousands of races, we’ve found something important:

Outsider Picks tend to be more profitable over time.

Why? Because they’re built around value, not popularity.

If a horse is priced at 10/1 but our model rates it closer to 6/1, that’s a value edge. You won’t win as often — but when you do, the returns are bigger than the risk you’ve taken. Over a big enough sample, those edges stack.

How the Algorithm Thinks About Outsiders

Outsiders aren’t random longshots. Our system is not “finding a roughie for the sake of it.” It’s selecting the runner with the strongest profit profile based on:

• Mispriced odds relative to model probability
• Race shape suitability (pace, draw, track bias)
• Improvement signals not fully priced in by the market
• Hidden form (runs better than it looks on paper)

That’s why our outsiders often look like “smart roughies” — not wild darts. They usually have a clear statistical reason to be considered undervalued.

How You Should Use Them

Different punters use our dual picks in different ways. Here are two common approaches:

1) The Balanced Approach

Back the Main Pick for consistency and the Outsider for upside.

• Great for steady bankroll growth
• Keeps you involved in the higher-confidence play
• Still gives you a shot at big returns

2) The Value-First Approach

Focus primarily on Outsiders if you’re comfortable with variance.

• Lower strike rate, higher ROI
• Best suited to disciplined staking
• Ideal if your goal is long-term profit, not daily wins

Neither approach is “right” or “wrong” — it depends on your risk tolerance and goals.

The Bottom Line

Main Picks are our predicted winners. Outsider Picks are our predicted profit engines.

If you want the horse most likely to win, trust the Main Pick. If you want the horse most likely to deliver the best return against its price, the Outsider Pick is your edge.

Over time, value beats vibes — and that’s exactly why outsiders remain a core part of the PunterPro way of tipping.

Good luck, and bet smart.